Net growth · churn modeling
Membership Growth Calculator
Model member adds, monthly churn, and net membership growth over a 12-month period.
Net membership growth determines MRR trajectory. This calculator simulates 12 months of member adds and churn so you can see whether your sales pace outpaces cancellations.
- Each month: Members = Prior Month × (1 − Churn) + New Sign-ups
- HFA industry annual retention is 66.4% (~3–4% monthly churn)
- Improving retention often beats increasing marketing spend
Built for gym owners planning growth targets, setting sales quotas, and evaluating retention initiatives.
Source: BizMetricsHQ Composite industry benchmarks (2024–2025 (HFA); 2025–2026 (owner economics)). Methodology
Growth Assumptions
Project members over 12 months.
Ending Active Members
957
Growing · +107 net over 12 months (12.6%)
Avg. Net Growth / Month
+8.9
Implied Annual Retention
61.3%
Total Acquired
540
Total Churned
433
Industry Benchmark
66.4% annual retention (HFA)
Typical monthly churn: 3–5%
12-Month Projection
| Month | Start | Churned | New | End | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 850 | 34 | 45 | 861 | +11 |
| 2 | 861 | 34 | 45 | 872 | +11 |
| 3 | 872 | 35 | 45 | 882 | +10 |
| 4 | 882 | 35 | 45 | 892 | +10 |
| 5 | 892 | 36 | 45 | 901 | +9 |
| 6 | 901 | 36 | 45 | 910 | +9 |
| 7 | 910 | 36 | 45 | 919 | +9 |
| 8 | 919 | 37 | 45 | 927 | +8 |
| 9 | 927 | 37 | 45 | 935 | +8 |
| 10 | 935 | 37 | 45 | 943 | +8 |
| 11 | 943 | 38 | 45 | 950 | +7 |
| 12 | 950 | 38 | 45 | 957 | +7 |
| Metric | Industry Range |
|---|---|
| Industry Annual Retention | 66.4% (HFA) |
| Typical Monthly Churn | 3 – 5% |
| New Members / Month (Mid-size gym) | 30 – 60 |
| Net Growth Target | 2 – 5% monthly |
Related Gym Data
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Frequently Asked Questions
How do you project gym membership growth?
Start with active members, subtract monthly churn (cancellations), then add new sign-ups. Repeat each month. Churn is applied to members at the start of each month before new sales are added.
What is a good net membership growth rate?
Healthy independent gyms target 2–5% net member growth per month. If churn matches or exceeds new sales, membership and MRR flatten or decline even with marketing spend.
How does monthly churn affect annual retention?
At 4% monthly churn, implied annual retention is about 61% (0.96^12). HFA reports 66.4% industry annual retention, which aligns with roughly 3–3.5% monthly churn in a steady-state model.
Should I focus on new members or retention?
Retention often has higher ROI. Reducing monthly churn from 5% to 4% on 850 members keeps ~8 more members per month — nearly 100 member-months of revenue annually without extra acquisition cost.